I’m curious…what is so great about Steven Stamkos? Why does every GM want him? Why does every player want to be him? Why is Matt Martin’s wife so hot?
I’ve got a lot of questions. We all know Steven Stamkos generates shots, he scores a metric shit load of goals and his points per game (PPG) is indicative of the star we know he is.
So what’s the point of this then? Well, Steven Stamkos, like a few other NHL superstars, spends about half of his career on the DL. Over his career, Stamkos has missed 118 games, which is nothing compared to Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Joffrey Lupul or Sidney Crosby. So, how much value is lost when a super star player misses a bunch of games, and for fun, can they reasonably be replaced by another player?
So the first guy to look at is Steven Stamkos.
Dollars per point (2016-2017) – $4,250,000
This is an insane stat. This past season, Tampa Bay had Stamkos as an $8.5 million dollar cap hit. He had 20 points in 17 games. Now obviously, this is an extreme example of a highly paid player, scoring well, over an extremely short period of time. But this is where the value comes.
Tampa Bay, I bet, would be upset if they paid a guy this much for offensive contribution. Over one year or….
Dollars per point (Career) – $112,843
Now, Steven Stamkos is a point per game player, but like I said, he has missed 118 games. So, this might not be as bad as it sounds.
So, Replace him with…: Brayden Point
Obviously Steven Stamkos is better than Brayden Point, but… in 329 games (including Junior hockey) has 368 points, good for 1.11 points per game, which is .02 PPG higher than Steven Stamkos (including Junior).
Again, the point isn’t that Brayden Point is better than Steven Stamkos, but he manages to mimic the production, and costs $686,667 annually.
If I’m a GM considering going after Steven Stamkos, especially when you can get a better dollar per point ($/P) value from Brayden Point and the two generate shots at a similar rate.
Next guy up, Kris Letang. Letang has missed 183 games over the course of his career. This includes his first year in the league that he split with the AHL. So, I admit the first problem – of many – with this blog….I don’t care a lot about facts and will only ever give grand overviews with little specific detail…Anyways.
Dollars per point (2016/2017) – $213,235
Kris Letang made $7,250,000 this past season, playing 40 games and putting up 34 points. A typical pace for his outstanding career, and frankly a decent point total for any defenseman over a full season. Just not when Pittsburgh is expecting a $/P around $111,538. That is Letang scoring 60 points at $7.25 million.
Dollars per point (Career) – $99,106
Letang has 386 career NHL points over 603 career games. That’s .64 PPG, a great statistic for a defenseman, but again…accounting for missed games, that’s 498 points over an uninterrupted 779 game career. Some points I’m sure the Penguins would have rather had.
So, Replace him with…: Matt Dumba
Over the course of his career (including Junior) Matt Dumba has scored at a rate of .51 PPG, perfectly respectable and expected to go up. Keep in mind that Dumba is younger, on a $2.5 million contract and his 5on5 goals per hour is comparable to Kris Letang – who benefits from an all-around better team.
Not one of the 100 best players of all time.
Dollars per point (2016/2017) – $1,319,444
Malkin is a scary guy. He was at a 1.16 PPG rate in 2016-2017, which would equate to, 95 points over a full season. He was a difference maker this season despite being limited to 62 games. Had he played the full season at 1.16 PPG, Malkins $/P would have been an even $1 million.
Dollars per point (Career) – $100,363
Over a career, this $/P I think speaks more to the poor work of Malkin’s agent and the sad work of the NHL in getting their best players a bunch of money. Totally palatable for the Penguins, though of the games he missed, this number would be a lot lower.
Also, Malkin has never missed games in the same way Stamkos has per season. Malkin’s lowest GP in any season is 43, and after that 57.
So, Replace him with…: Umm…..Pipe Dreams?
The only player even remotely suited for this spot would be Auston Matthews. And honestly, he is going to be paid at least what Malkin makes on his next contract.
The most hurt guy in the history of anything. And a Maple Leaf…sort of.
Dollars per point (2016/2017) – N/A?
I don’t know how to write this part because Joffrey Lupul didn’t play any games and I don’t know how to divide by zero. His cap hit was $5,250,000. It doesn’t really feel like he will return to playing hockey. Sad, but I guess that’s how it goes.
Dollars per point (Career) – $124,453
This number should be WAY lower. Over his career, Joffrey Lupul scored at a .60 PPG. That’s a really respectable number, ESPECIALLY for a guy that never really even got his wheels turning.
Over his career, he missed 246 games. He NEVER once in his career played an entire regular season. His highest total was 81 games, which he played twice. Had he not missed any games, his $/P would have been $91,702. That means the Leafs and Ducks lost approx. $32,751 of something. SOMETHING!
So, Replace him with…: Anders Lee
Anders Lee had a PPG of .64, which allows for regression compared to Lupul’s .60. Lee similarly had those numbers on completely bunghole teams.
Lee is 26 and makes $3.75 million per season. He generates more shots, suppresses more shots and has no known history of being made of glass. But, apparently he is American, which with a name like Anders Lee, must be a lie. Cake Eater.
So, I guess basically, the point of this was…that I don’t know what the correlation between a great player missing a ton of games and a decent player playing a full season, especially when it comes to paying for the points.
I’ve always been skeptical of a guy like Stamkos because I don’t like how his defensive numbers stack up vs the value of his contract and the number of games he misses.
I remain skeptical.